All “insurance” is based upon population statistics. These statistics are used to calculate the cost of caring for “The Herd”. Whether it’s for health, life, auto, home, property, or quarterbacks’ arms, all insurance is just a big bet. It’s a wager by the private or government insurer… . For the private insurer (Aetna, Blue, United, etc.) their ability to stay in business (profitability and stock value) depends upon consistently winning the wager.